Predicted number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 190 thousand on 4 February

A study has jointly finished by researchers from Lancaster University, the University of Glasgow, and the University of Florida, aiming at the epidemic predictions in Communist China.

The research results published in Medrxiv on 24 January, “Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions”, show us an epidemic outlook by a statistic model.

In 14 days(4 February 2020), the statistical model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 190 thousand (prediction interval, 132,751 to 273,649), and the epidemic size over 250,000. The researchers predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing, and Chengdu, and also by 4 February 2020, the countries or special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.

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Source: Medrxiv

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Jan. 25, 2020