Welcome to the first-ever public service announcement from your friends on ‘The Farm’.
We will be publishing macro and micro trading strategies, political and social commentary, as well as our personal and philosophical views in a much wider capacity over the coming months. For some of us working on this project, we feel it’s our duty to publish this openly. Special thanks to Miles Guo, Steve Bannon, Kyle Bass, and Gen. Robert Spalding for making this piece possible. An extra special thank you to our friends all over the world who’ve taken a stand to fight for their futures.
One of the core strategies of information warfare is to confuse your opponents and mask your intentions. This is a short journey into yesterday’s market events and activities, and their relevance to our financial stability and our future.
Part 1: Trump Tariff-off? Trump Tariff-on?
Overnight, American news agencies picked up on a story (from the CCP) claiming that the United States was prepared to back off its proposed tariffs in a phase one deal “soon.”
We all knew this was a lie. The moment we heard it, we knew it was an absolute falsehood. We share in the open knowledge that Trump would not change his stance on tariffs with China because we do not live in a fantasy world anymore where our government does nothing about hostile activities conducted in secret by foreign government actors. Say it with me now. This original piece of news out of China is truly “Fake News”. Almost all news organizations picked this one up and printed it as fact. Ask yourselves who created this piece of journalism, and for what ends? Who was the intended audience and why? Why was there no retraction from Bloomberg or the NYT? Why haven’t there been many retractions of news stories over the past few years at all?
By 3 am, the reports were syndicated and re-cast around the various news wires and got fed into the market data trading platforms and algos(stock trading algorithm robots)— and we melted up in the morning.
Then the limited retraction came, hours later, presumably by White House officials waiting until the market was closer to close to make any potentially damaging (to the markets) statements, and was published by the likes of Reuters and the WSJ. This kind of rampant manipulation is widespread, and will very likely continue while presenting itself as more obvious as time goes on. This piece of news did not cause the markets to retract in a meaningful way — but it did encourage a flight to further safety.
The story doesn’t end here. This is a theory: it is my belief that these news organizations republished their original articles later in the day (after 8 pm or so — I have some screenshots to prove that the articles were republished) without issuing any retractions or clarifications for the purposes of manipulating SEO scores. This was done because when one would try to find out the “Real News” on this topic, they would be deliberately misled if they were unable to find a small number of ‘Trump tariff-on’ articles that were presumably created by actual journalists covering statements from our actual government. Why are these journalists in the minority? This should be raising some serious alarm bells for folks at home — it’s probably time to start calling our local representatives and finding out their positions on these issues.
As a segue into my next topic, the reason I think this is important is that the CCP requires large sums of capital to fund activities and operate its various endeavors. Over the last few years, it has spent an inordinate amount of time repatriating it’s entrepreneurs, as well as their capital, to excess. I imagine that this may create some level of distrust in the rank and file CCP membership. This hostile-takeover style in-sourcing of capital should generally give anyone with financial exposure to China great pause.
Part 2: Global Liquidity Crunch Precipitated by Hong Kong?
Zerohedge recently published an article claiming that Jamie Dimon and another US institution were sucking up most of the liquidity being provided by the fed repo operations (that haven’t been used since the onset of the great recession) to provide much-needed liquidity to already topsy-turvy financial markets while everyone continues business as usual. We are deeply short mid-cap technology now (TWLO for one — check out their ‘mathematical misprint’ from Monday the 4th because their CFO can’t even do basic math) as the value just isn’t there, which WeWork proved in spades. The money only has a few places to go, and they are almost entirely in the safety of the United States. The money is (in part) fleeing to safety in large-cap blue-chip equities, bringing the indexes up to record highs on a daily basis, and also manifests in more seemingly bizarre and archaic events (I kid) like colleagues taking on the delivery of physical gold bars and similar ‘bug-out’ plans we see everywhere.
Why is this happening? (Take a deep breath.) I believe the world is facing an unprecedented and hidden massive liquidity crunch due to a lack of available capital in Hong Kong, which is the world’s 3rd largest financial market. To put it in perspective, just like in 2008, we’ve turned the QE faucet back on with a vengeance to create liquidity in the capital markets — aka, turning the defibrillator on and pinning the patient to the table, giving it a night it will never forget. The United States economy can handle this kind of sustained monetary policy — because it has been principled in fairness and good faith dealings for the duration of its existence, and there is nothing that will shake my faith in the U.S. dollar. The same cannot be said for the CCP, which — as we all well know, is a currency manipulator, plain and simple.
The liquidity may be necessitated by a lack of deal flow and volume coming out of Hong Kong due to the civil unrest in the nation-state. The people there have done an admirable job over the last few months raising awareness for their cause, as well as sowing chaos for the CCP similarly to how our Founding Fathers once caused such chaos for the British Crown. We should be aware and supportive of their plights against tyranny, and we should start looking at unconventional methods to impacting financial damage on institutions that don’t share in our values. People like Charles Barkley and Lebron James will need to learn to shut the hell up pretty fast and gain some integrity, lest the guillotines are brought out into the town square before their repentance for not supporting the good people of Hong Kong in their fight against tyranny.
Asymmetric warfare, the “water-like” nature of the protestors fluidity and the disruption in capital markets, as well as pure patriotism (on the part of the protestors in Hong Kong, of course) are ALL drivers of this cash crunch. This information is not being accurately relayed or synthesized by mainstream media sources in any meaningful way, so I have taken it upon myself to make these cases and bring public awareness to these events.
Hong Kong is not being discussed by the mainstream media either. One would think at this time that, out of self-preservation alone, the United States would be somewhat reluctant to do any additional large-scale financial transactions with the mainland being the primary counter-party while lacking a trusted intermediary to conduct affairs. Or maybe at all? This is what decoupling looks like. This is the case as we close out in 2019 because they are openly killing and beating good and innocent people in the streets. This demonstrates to us, just as it did in 1989, that they are hanging onto power by a mere thread. The average American does protest non-violently for the things they believe in — and it is unjustifiable in the eyes of the American conscience to allow PLA soldiers to react to simple non-violent civil disobedience in such hostile manners. In the context of the US Legislature (Congress and The House of Representatives), it appears that conscience has begun to grow a backbone in trying to pass the HK Human Rights and Democracy Act. I call upon all our readers to urge their local representatives to take immediate action in supporting the act so that we may do our part to help the good people of Hong Kong.
For now, the American electorate remains safe behind the traditional protection provided by the US military and government institutions — and so for now, they sit sidelined, with neither awareness nor understanding of the complexity of the situation. Soon though, they will again be asking what is being done by their government to help ensure the continued expansion of the American economy.
Part 3: New beginnings and what to watch?
The world isn’t going to end. Nuclear war is not any more likely than it was a few years ago. Things will largely continue as they always have, but I, like many others, believe we are seeing events that will forever alter history, hopefully, to safeguard the Rule of Law for many years to come.
Since the mythological fairytale we’ve been living in is now coming to an abrupt close, it’s clear there’s an element of thrashing (on the part of the CCP) to be witnessed if you look in the right places.
Last month, many Chinese owned assets in the US were packaged up and sold (including the Waldorf Astoria in a 6b deal) and they even repatriated Jack Ma (and his money) back into the country, as our good friend CCP-exterminator Miles Guo accurately predicted just over a year ago.
My macro view on this is positive for the Chinese people in the long term, and negative for the CCP in the short term. I do not have any trade recommendations here, as I feel it would be a bit risky, morally, to be short the Chinese currency when it will hurt the Chinese people. I predict there will be a return to “value-based fundamentals” investing over the next few years, where startups are required to maintain positive cash flow and be faced with more strict due diligence requirements, less variability in governance structure, and then the cycle will begin anew — with a new and open China, with stronger protections for civil liberties, free of the restrictive confines of the Great Firewall.
The media is beginning to lose its vice-grip like a hold over the paralyzed and polarized masses of the United States because the lies are just getting too big to remain hidden behind the veil. We will be covering that in-depth in a future article.
I will end with a rhetorical point on something Miles has been discussing at length recently on his broadcast. What challenge does the CCP (read more about recent developments on “Blockchain” utilization) pose to the U.S. dollar, SWIFT, and CHIPS, if they are lying about their gold reserves, lying about their FX reserves, lying about the economy in Hong Kong and the broader financial markets, and lying about their own ability to generate growth for their own people? Now they’re even lying to prop up our markets.
The Chinese population won’t be able to eat all the ‘on-shore’ Yuan the government has printed when the price of pork quadruples into next year — but we hope that our governments will be prepared to help the hard-working Chinese if needed. (The end.)
Welcome to ‘The Farm’.
Disclaimer: The above is the author’s personal opinion and is not the opinion of GNews.